Sports Analytics Weekly by kubeia.io - 46/2024
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🎲 Betting
The Online Sports Gambling Experiment Has Failed
substack.com - Zvi Mowshowitz
When sports gambling was legalized in America, I was hopeful it too could prove a net positive force, far superior to the previous obnoxious wave of daily fantasy sports.It brings me no pleasure to conclude that this was not the case. The results are in. Legalized mobile gambling on sports, let alone casino games, has proven to be a huge mistake. The societal impacts are far worse than I expected.
📝 Sports Analytics
Premier League Power Rankings
expectinggoals.com - Michael Caley
This is not a typical Expecting Goals post. For one, it has gone out in full to all readers of Expecting Goals. Hi everyone! And most notably, it is not in itself a larger study of complex topics in football analytics. This will be a short work of commentary about teams in the 2024-25 Premier League based on a toy model I built.
🤖 Machine Learning
GPTree: Towards Explainable Decision-Making via LLM-powered Decision Trees
arxiv.org - Sichao Xiong, Yigit Ihlamur, Fuat Alican, Aaron Ontoyin Yin
Abstract:Traditional decision tree algorithms are explainable but struggle with non-linear, high-dimensional data, limiting its applicability in complex decision-making. Neural networks excel at capturing complex patterns but sacrifice explainability in the process. In this work, we present GPTree, a novel framework combining explainability of decision trees with the advanced reasoning capabilities of LLMs. GPTree eliminates the need for feature engineering and prompt chaining, requiring only a task-specific prompt and leveraging a tree-based structure to dynamically split samples. We also introduce an expert-in-the-loop feedback mechanism to further enhance performance by enabling human intervention to refine and rebuild decision paths, emphasizing the harmony between human expertise and machine intelligence. Our decision tree achieved a 7.8% precision rate for identifying "unicorn" startups at the inception stage of a startup, surpassing gpt-4o with few-shot learning as well as the best human decision-makers (3.1% to 5.6%).
🧮 Statistics
Flexible statistical method powers research on health, climate, financial data
phys.org
Machine learning and artificial intelligence wouldn't be possible without the statistical models that underpin their analytic capabilities. A Cornell statistician and his colleague have developed a revolutionary new method to analyze complex datasets that's more flexible, accurate and easy to use.
🌩 Forecasting
The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google
asteriskmag.com - Dan Schwarz Over the past two decades, Google has hosted two different internal platforms for predictions. Why did the first one
Over the past two decades, Google has hosted two different internal platforms for predictions. Why did the first one fail — and will the other endure?