Sports Analytics Weekly by kubeia.io - 37/2026
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🎲 Betting
Prediction Markets Reshaping Sports Betting With NFL Upon Us
gamblinginsider.com - Brant James
This football season ushers in a new era of betting on the games, as prediction markets hone in on the turf of FanDuel and DraftKings. Sportsbooks are adjusting, but it may be too late to catch Kalshi and Polymarket in the race for exchange-based customers.
The Mathematics of Money
aleatoricfc.com
A fishing trip, an adoptive grandpa, and the reason a bankroll grows: Kelly's 1956 paper read as Shannon's communication model, all the way to G = H(X) − H(X|Y).
📝 Sports Analytics
TI #035: Should Expected Goals Know Who Is Shooting?
substack.com - Alex Marin Felices
What changes when xG stops treating every finisher as the same player?
Can We Measure How Much an Action Changes a Match?
substack.com - Alex Marin Felices
Linking risk-adjusted VAEP with Bayesian win probabilities to evaluate actions under different game states.
The Tactical Foul Is Not the Same in Every League
substack.com - Alex Marin Felices
A team with 35% possession has far more opportunities to foul than a team controlling 65% of the ball.
Yet traditional statistics place their foul totals side by side as though both teams spent the same amount of time defending. The count may be accurate, but the comparison is not.
This is the starting point of today’s study, examining ten seasons across the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1. Its headline finding is provocative: fouling while out of possession was associated with better defensive performance and more points, with the relationship appearing strongest in England.
But the paper’s most valuable contribution is not the suggestion that teams should commit more fouls.
It is the reminder that football actions only become meaningful when we measure the opportunities and situations that produced them.
🏛️ Economics
The European Elite
substack.com - Swiss Ramble
While it is clear that England’s top tier as a whole is far stronger financially than its rivals, I wondered whether this is also the case for the elite clubs at the top of the pyramid.
This article will address this question by reviewing the finances of the top 15 clubs in Europe, comparing England’s leading lights against other “blue chip” clubs.
It will also look at how attractive such clubs are to potential investors, especially after FSG’s recent sale of a sizeable minority stake in Liverpool that placed a hefty £5.5 bln valuation on the Reds.
In particular, even though football clubs tend to lose money, is it possible that the finances at the top clubs are improving, i.e. potentially justifying the huge prices paid by investors?