Leaderboard

Best performing user generated models

#	Competition	Market	User	Algorithm	ROI	RPS	Log Loss	Predictions (possible)
1	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	23.10%	0.183	0.896	71 (71)
2	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	20.25%	0.180	0.897	61 (61)
3	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	15.47%	0.191	0.940	110 (110)
4	Liga	1X2		Random forest	11.38%	0.191	0.947	149 (149)
5	MLS	1X2		Decision Trees	10.26%	0.223	1.052	262 (262)
6	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	6.70%	0.194	0.976	1051 (1051)
7	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	6.66%	0.180	0.909	867 (867)
8	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	6.24%	0.179	0.907	867 (867)
9	Liga	1X2	John W	XGBoost	6.00%	0.195	0.978	717 (717)
10	Serie A	1X2		Logistic regression	5.77%	0.192	0.985	574 (574)
11	Ligue 1	1X2		Decision Trees	5.50%	0.214	1.026	462 (462)
12	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	5.44%	0.233	1.095	320 (640)
13	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.80%	0.180	0.908	849 (849)
14	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.65%	0.191	0.957	523 (523)
15	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.44%	0.188	0.947	525 (525)
16	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.21%	0.197	0.987	567 (567)
17	Serie A	1X2		Logistic regression	4.02%	0.202	1.016	229 (229)
18	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.95%	0.232	1.091	312 (640)
19	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	Naive Bayes	3.93%	0.328	1.960	1207 (1207)
20	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.92%	0.187	0.950	563 (563)
21	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.84%	0.199	0.989	564 (564)
22	Ligue 1	1X2	singinanarchist	Decision Trees	3.81%	0.217	1.035	607 (607)
23	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.79%	0.183	0.944	286 (286)
24	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.47%	0.191	0.955	523 (523)
25	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.49%	0.203	1.000	691 (691)

Only true predictions made before a future game are included (no back test). The models are sorted by ROI using Pinnacle™ odds at the time of prediction. To qualify for the leaderboard, a model should have at least 50 predictions.

Better ROI than betting on the favorite using Pinnacle™ closing odds.

Better ROI than betting on a home team win.

Worse ROI than both baselines.