Leaderboard

Best performing user generated models

#	Competition	Market	User	Algorithm	ROI	RPS	Log Loss	Predictions (possible)
1	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	11.02%	0.183	0.948	207 (207)
2	MLS	1X2		Decision Trees	9.76%	0.223	1.051	175 (175)
3	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	9.03%	0.179	0.907	788 (788)
4	Liga	1X2	John W	XGBoost	8.56%	0.194	0.976	598 (598)
5	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	8.46%	0.179	0.906	788 (788)
6	Serie A	1X2		Logistic regression	7.53%	0.189	0.978	455 (455)
7	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	7.22%	0.180	0.907	770 (770)
8	Ligue 1	1X2		Decision Trees	7.04%	0.214	1.021	355 (355)
9	Ligue 1	1X2		Naive Bayes	6.51%	0.578	4.644	242 (242)
10	Ligue 1	1X2	John W	CatBoost	6.33%	0.216	1.009	252 (473)
11	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	5.78%	0.232	1.098	269 (553)
12	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.84%	0.194	0.978	932 (932)
13	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.58%	0.191	0.961	406 (406)
14	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.29%	0.220	1.105	134 (295)
15	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.28%	0.231	1.090	269 (553)
16	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	Naive Bayes	4.09%	0.327	1.957	1120 (1120)
17	Ligue 1	1X2	singinanarchist	Decision Trees	3.97%	0.217	1.030	500 (500)
18	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.74%	0.187	0.954	484 (484)
19	Ligue 1	1X2	Quant Wizard	Naive Bayes	3.27%	0.485	2.659	873 (873)
20	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.07%	0.191	0.959	406 (406)
21	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.87%	0.188	0.950	406 (406)
22	Ligue 1	1X2	John W	CatBoost	2.81%	0.209	0.983	473 (473)
23	Premier League	1X2		Naive Bayes	2.27%	0.208	1.002	291 (291)
24	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.23%	0.183	0.949	389 (675)
25	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	2.13%	0.187	0.943	340 (340)

Only true predictions made before a future game are included (no back test). The models are sorted by ROI using Pinnacle™ odds at the time of prediction. To qualify for the leaderboard, a model should have at least 50 predictions.

Better ROI than betting on the favorite using Pinnacle™ closing odds.

Better ROI than betting on a home team win.

Worse ROI than both baselines.