Leaderboard

Best performing user generated models

#	Competition	Market	User	Algorithm	ROI	RPS	Log Loss	Predictions (possible)
1	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	9.61%	0.197	0.978	155 (155)
2	MLS	1X2		Decision Trees	7.05%	0.224	1.054	312 (312)
3	Serie A	1X2		Logistic regression	6.41%	0.190	0.977	709 (709)
4	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	5.98%	0.189	0.939	185 (185)
5	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabICL	5.73%	0.181	0.921	152 (152)
6	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	5.58%	0.195	0.979	1166 (1166)
7	Liga	1X2	John W	XGBoost	5.20%	0.196	0.981	832 (832)
8	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.66%	0.179	0.908	972 (972)
9	Ligue 1	1X2		Decision Trees	4.55%	0.213	1.022	543 (543)
10	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.18%	0.192	0.960	638 (638)
11	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.15%	0.198	0.991	615 (615)
12	Ligue 1	1X2	John W	CatBoost	4.09%	0.217	1.008	355 (661)
13	Liga	1X2		Random forest	4.00%	0.192	0.954	264 (264)
14	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.96%	0.178	0.906	972 (972)
15	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.85%	0.199	0.993	612 (612)
16	Serie A	1X2		Naive Bayes	3.27%	0.283	6.489	803 (804)
17	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.21%	0.191	0.958	638 (638)
18	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.14%	0.180	0.931	391 (391)
19	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.12%	0.189	0.950	640 (640)
20	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.08%	0.179	0.908	954 (954)
21	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	2.94%	0.210	1.062	482 (831)
22	Ligue 1	1X2	singinanarchist	Decision Trees	2.94%	0.216	1.035	688 (688)
23	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.55%	0.203	1.002	739 (739)
24	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	2.37%	0.233	1.097	340 (690)
25	Premier League	1X2		Naive Bayes	2.27%	0.208	1.002	291 (291)

Only true predictions made before a future game are included (no back test). The models are sorted by ROI using Pinnacle™ odds at the time of prediction. To qualify for the leaderboard, a model should have at least 150 predictions.

Better ROI than betting on the favorite using Pinnacle™ closing odds.

Better ROI than betting on a home team win.

Worse ROI than both baselines.