Leaderboard

Best performing user generated models

#	Competition	Market	User	Algorithm	ROI	RPS	Log Loss	Predictions (possible)
1	MLS	1X2		Decision Trees	10.26%	0.223	1.052	262 (262)
2	Serie A	1X2		Logistic regression	7.81%	0.189	0.976	676 (676)
3	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	7.39%	0.191	0.940	151 (151)
4	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	6.07%	0.195	0.979	1132 (1132)
5	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	5.44%	0.233	1.095	320 (640)
6	Liga	1X2	John W	XGBoost	4.95%	0.196	0.981	798 (798)
7	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.93%	0.180	0.910	943 (943)
8	Ligue 1	1X2		Decision Trees	4.86%	0.214	1.028	513 (513)
9	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.21%	0.180	0.908	943 (943)
10	Liga	1X2		Random forest	4.17%	0.194	0.957	230 (230)
11	Ligue 1	1X2	John W	CatBoost	4.14%	0.217	1.004	335 (631)
12	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.96%	0.192	0.960	604 (604)
13	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.95%	0.232	1.091	312 (640)
14	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	Naive Bayes	3.93%	0.328	1.960	1207 (1207)
15	Serie A	1X2		Naive Bayes	3.67%	0.282	6.439	770 (771)
16	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.45%	0.209	1.058	466 (798)
17	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.37%	0.198	0.991	597 (597)
18	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.31%	0.189	0.951	606 (606)
19	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.31%	0.180	0.910	925 (925)
20	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.08%	0.178	0.913	720 (720)
21	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.07%	0.200	0.993	594 (594)
22	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	2.99%	0.186	0.944	639 (639)
23	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.93%	0.192	0.958	604 (604)
24	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	2.64%	0.188	0.950	180 (180)
25	Ligue 1	1X2	singinanarchist	Decision Trees	2.35%	0.217	1.037	658 (658)

Only true predictions made before a future game are included (no back test). The models are sorted by ROI using Pinnacle™ odds at the time of prediction. To qualify for the leaderboard, a model should have at least 150 predictions.

Better ROI than betting on the favorite using Pinnacle™ closing odds.

Better ROI than betting on a home team win.

Worse ROI than both baselines.