Leaderboard

Best performing user generated models

#	Competition	Market	User	Algorithm	ROI	RPS	Log Loss	Predictions (possible)
1	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	22.87%	0.183	0.919	56 (56)
2	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	10.41%	0.196	0.962	101 (101)
3	MLS	1X2		Decision Trees	10.26%	0.223	1.052	262 (262)
4	Serie A	1X2		Logistic regression	6.99%	0.189	0.979	555 (555)
5	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	6.63%	0.193	0.976	1032 (1032)
6	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	6.60%	0.180	0.910	852 (852)
7	Ligue 1	1X2		Decision Trees	6.52%	0.214	1.027	444 (444)
8	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	6.18%	0.179	0.907	852 (852)
9	Liga	1X2	John W	XGBoost	6.07%	0.194	0.976	698 (698)
10	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	5.44%	0.233	1.095	320 (640)
11	Liga	1X2		Random forest	5.01%	0.188	0.953	130 (130)
12	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.99%	0.180	0.909	834 (834)
13	Ligue 1	1X2	singinanarchist	Decision Trees	4.19%	0.217	1.036	589 (589)
14	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.00%	0.190	0.958	504 (504)
15	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.95%	0.232	1.091	312 (640)
16	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	Naive Bayes	3.93%	0.328	1.960	1207 (1207)
17	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.88%	0.207	1.059	398 (677)
18	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.78%	0.187	0.947	506 (506)
19	Serie A	1X2		Naive Bayes	3.50%	0.284	6.564	649 (650)
20	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.25%	0.188	0.953	548 (548)
21	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.96%	0.199	0.993	549 (549)
22	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.78%	0.190	0.956	504 (504)
23	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	2.73%	0.184	0.947	271 (271)
24	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.70%	0.200	0.995	546 (546)
25	Premier League	1X2		Naive Bayes	2.27%	0.208	1.002	291 (291)

Only true predictions made before a future game are included (no back test). The models are sorted by ROI using Pinnacle™ odds at the time of prediction. To qualify for the leaderboard, a model should have at least 50 predictions.

Better ROI than betting on the favorite using Pinnacle™ closing odds.

Better ROI than betting on a home team win.

Worse ROI than both baselines.