Leaderboard

Best performing user generated models

#	Competition	Market	User	Algorithm	ROI	RPS	Log Loss	Predictions (possible)
1	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	9.01%	0.195	0.969	244 (244)
2	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabICL	5.77%	0.190	0.935	219 (219)
3	Serie A	1X2		Logistic regression	5.15%	0.192	0.981	795 (795)
4	Liga	1X2	John W	XGBoost	4.94%	0.200	0.991	927 (927)
5	Ligue 1	1X2	John W	CatBoost	4.61%	0.216	1.008	396 (734)
6	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.59%	0.198	0.986	1261 (1261)
7	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.57%	0.194	0.963	733 (733)
8	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	4.46%	0.195	0.951	253 (253)
9	Ligue 1	1X2	singinanarchist	Decision Trees	4.33%	0.215	1.033	761 (761)
10	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.97%	0.191	0.954	735 (735)
11	Ligue 1	1X2		Decision Trees	3.91%	0.212	1.022	616 (616)
12	Liga	1X2		Random forest	3.80%	0.197	0.964	359 (359)
13	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.73%	0.193	0.961	733 (733)
14	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.17%	0.199	0.994	721 (721)
15	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.05%	0.188	0.953	589 (1015)
16	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.05%	0.198	0.992	724 (724)
17	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	2.74%	0.180	0.914	1050 (1050)
18	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	2.65%	0.203	1.002	848 (848)
19	Serie A	1X2		Naive Bayes	2.44%	0.286	6.590	889 (890)
20	Premier League	1X2		Naive Bayes	2.27%	0.208	1.002	291 (291)
21	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	2.05%	0.196	0.966	278 (278)
22	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	1.86%	0.213	1.066	532 (917)
23	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	1.72%	0.179	0.912	1050 (1050)
24	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	1.54%	0.185	0.948	746 (746)
25	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	1.54%	0.191	0.959	1005 (1005)

Only true predictions made before a future game are included (no back test). The models are sorted by ROI using Pinnacle™ odds at the time of prediction. To qualify for the leaderboard, a model should have at least 150 predictions.

Better ROI than betting on the favorite using Pinnacle™ closing odds.

Better ROI than betting on a home team win.

Worse ROI than both baselines.