Leaderboard

Best performing user generated models

#	Competition	Market	User	Algorithm	ROI	RPS	Log Loss	Predictions (possible)
1	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	12.70%	0.197	0.950	120 (120)
2	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabICL	11.94%	0.173	0.891	95 (95)
3	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	11.12%	0.186	0.923	126 (126)
4	MLS	1X2		Decision Trees	10.26%	0.223	1.052	262 (262)
5	Serie A	1X2		Logistic regression	6.78%	0.189	0.977	651 (651)
6	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	5.88%	0.161	0.844	97 (97)
7	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	5.65%	0.185	0.933	113 (113)
8	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	5.61%	0.195	0.978	1106 (1106)
9	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	5.44%	0.233	1.095	320 (640)
10	Ligue 1	1X2		Decision Trees	5.40%	0.214	1.023	491 (491)
11	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	5.04%	0.179	0.908	919 (919)
12	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.80%	0.191	0.958	578 (578)
13	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	4.21%	0.179	0.906	919 (919)
14	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	4.12%	0.188	0.948	580 (580)
15	Ligue 1	1X2	John W	CatBoost	4.03%	0.216	1.004	320 (609)
16	Liga	1X2	John W	XGBoost	3.99%	0.196	0.979	772 (772)
17	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.95%	0.232	1.091	312 (640)
18	MLS	1X2	Quant Wizard	Naive Bayes	3.93%	0.328	1.960	1207 (1207)
19	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.83%	0.198	0.988	577 (577)
20	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.82%	0.185	0.944	615 (615)
21	Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	TabPFN	3.75%	0.186	0.949	155 (155)
22	Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.73%	0.191	0.956	578 (578)
23	Liga	1X2		Random forest	3.58%	0.191	0.950	204 (204)
24	Brasileirão Serie A	1X2	Quant Wizard	CatBoost	3.42%	0.200	0.990	574 (574)
25	Primeira Liga	1X2	Quant Wizard	XGBoost	3.29%	0.179	0.907	901 (901)

Only true predictions made before a future game are included (no back test). The models are sorted by ROI using Pinnacle™ odds at the time of prediction. To qualify for the leaderboard, a model should have at least 50 predictions.

Better ROI than betting on the favorite using Pinnacle™ closing odds.

Better ROI than betting on a home team win.

Worse ROI than both baselines.