Sports Analytics Weekly by kubeia.io - 30/2024
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🎲 Betting
The Misunderstood Kelly Criterion
two-wrongs.com - kqr
The merits of the Kelly criterion that we have discussed are really only useful if you are planning on living literally forever, or managing something that does. The Kelly criterion is at its core one of those asymptotic facts that are really only true once you take the limit when time tends to infinity.
Can You Generate Sports Betting Profits Without Relying On Closing Line Value?
youtube.com
On the latest episode of the @CirclesOffHQ podcast, professional sports bettor Rob Pizzola discusses the ultimate goal for every sports bettor - achieving a consistent edge without necessarily relying on Closing Line Value (CLV). He breaks down why baseball bettor Berryhorse might be generating an impressive ROI on MLB despite barely any CLV. Discover the secrets behind this unique betting strategy and learn how you can potentially achieve a "license to print money" by focusing on the right aspects of your betting game.
📝 Sports Analytics
Measuring Throw-In Success
statsbomb.com - Jaymes Monte
In the 2023/24 Premier League season, there were an average of ∼35 throw-ins per game. Roughly 25% of them were in the throwing team’s defensive third, and the remaining 75% were more or less evenly shared between middle and attacking thirds.
Expected Pass (xPass) | A new way to evaluate passing ability
youtube.com
StatsBomb’s Expected Pass (xPass) model calculates the likelihood of completing a pass under various conditions. By comparing actual pass completions to the expected rate, xPass provides a more accurate evaluation of a player's passing tendencies and ability.