Sports Analytics Weekly by kubeia.io - 50/2024
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🎲 Betting
Closing Line Value (CLV) Demystified by Expert
pinnacleoddsdropper.com - Joseph Buchdahl
The term ‘closing line’ comes from the world of American sports betting, specifically, line betting or point spread markets, a kind of handicap market designed to equalise the odds on each side by adjusting the points total. In US betting parlance, this is known as the line. Furthermore, what UK and European bettors might call fixed odds, for example, the prices for a home, draw and away in football, are known in the US as moneyline. The closing line (or reasonably closing odds or closing price) is simply the line (or price or odds) at the moment the sportsbook closes the betting market just before a match begins. Having opened their betting market, sportsbooks are known to frequently move their lines (or odds) in response to two main things: news and money. The two are not mutually exclusive. News about a particular game, and the teams and players involved, may shift the line (or odds). Similarly, money coming from the sportsbooks’ customers may help shift the sportsbook’s opinion about how accurate their betting odds are. More money on one side may cause the sportsbook to shorten their price on that side. In theory, then, the more opportunity there has been for more news and more money to flow into the market, the more accurate the line or odds reflecting that news and money should be. Since the closing line or odds is the last one, theory tells us that it should, on average, be the most accurate of all. Just how accurate the average will be to a significant extent depends on the betting market, but for very popular like the English Premier League or the NFL, there is ample evidence to show that the closing line/odds provide a reasonable measure of the true outcome probabilities, at least on average.
📝 Sports Analytics
Stoppage time matters: how substitutions and using all minutes played affect player statistics
github.io - Eliot McKinley
You might think that determining how much playing time a player receives would be rather straightforward, but it is not.In soccer statistics there are two camps regarding how to determine how much time a player has spent playing. The first camp ignores stoppage time and caps each half at 45 mins for a total of 90 minutes played. The second camp instead decides that stoppage time is still part of the game and expands the minutes played to include that, too.The 90 minute absolutists are dominant on most sites you’ll find data such as FBRef, TransferMarkt, Whoscored, or MLSsoccer.com. The argument here is that a soccer game is 90 minutes and any stoppage time in regular time will be exactly accounted for by the ref as added time.