Sports Analytics Weekly by kubeia.io - 39/2025
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š² Betting
How Did Sports Betting Become Legal in the US?
dopaminemarkets.com - Shreyas Hariharan
In 2018, the Supreme Court repealed a 26-year federal ban on sports betting. This ruling unleashed the biggest gambling boom in Americaās 249-year history. How did that happen?
š Sports Analytics
Finding the Perfect Replacement
substack.com - Alex Marin Felices
Leveraging a Spatial Similarity Index to Compare Players Across the Field.
š¤ Machine Learning
The Kaggle Grandmasters Playbook: 7 Battle-Tested Modeling Techniques for Tabular Data
nvidia.com - Kazuki Onodera, ThƩo Viel, Gilberto Titericz and Chris Deotte
Over hundreds of Kaggle competitions, weāve refined a playbook that consistently lands us near the top of the leaderboardāno matter if weāre working with millions of rows, missing values, or test sets that behave nothing like the training data. This isnāt just a collection of modeling tricksāitās a repeatable system for solving real-world tabular problems fast.
Below are seven of our most battle-tested techniques, each one made practical through GPU acceleration. Whether youāre climbing the leaderboard or deploying models in production, these strategies can give you an edge.
š§® Statistics
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
arxiv.org - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Abstract:(The third edition corrects minor typos and adds 3 chapters synthesized from published papers plus an appendix on maximum entropy distributions.) The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=ān=\infty, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.